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Multihazards and Impact-based Forecasting 

This research focuses on the development of robust, highly resolved gridded datasets of past extreme weather events to facilitate the quantification of trends in their intensities, durations, and frequencies, as well as their impacts. Combined with observational and modeled data on past losses, this work leads to a better understanding of the characteristics of impactful severe single- and multi-hazard weather events – such as extreme heat and heavy precipitation – and the probability of their occurrence. It also lays the foundation for the investigation of cascading hazards that can arise from the combination of one or more severe weather events which we believe will become invaluable to scientists, engineers, and emergency managers seeking to design effective mitigation and adaptation strategies at scales relevant to risks. 

Reconstructing Rainfall

We estimate the full range of flooding that could result from past or plausible extreme rainfall events. Using advanced statistical techniques to generate a comprehensive catalogue of space-time storm scenarios.

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​Simulating Storms

Resampling historic rainfall footprints create realistic, spatially distributed storm scenarios for integration into flood models assessing probability and damage across a range of return periods.

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Mapping Uncertainty

high-resolution flood risk estimates account for uncertainty in rainfall patterns, support more informed design and emergency planning decisions for communities at risk.

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Relevant Publications

Quintal, H. C., Sebastian, A., Serre, M. L., Jäger, W. S., & de Ruiter, M. C. (2025). Covariance-informed spatiotemporal clustering improves the detection of hazardous weather events. EGUsphere, 2025, 1-35.

 

Sebastian, A., Juan, A., Bedient, P.B. (2022). Urban Flood Modeling: Perspectives, Challenges and Opportunities. In Coastal Flood Risk Reduction: Comparisons from the Netherlands and the U.S. Upper Texas Gulf Coast, S.D. Brody, Y. Lee, B.L.M. Kothuis (Eds.). Oxford: Elsevier, Inc. pp. 47-60. 

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Sebastian, A., Bader, D.J., Nederhoff, C.M., Leijnse, T.W., Bricker, J.D., Aarkinhof, S.G.J. (2021). Hindcast of pluvial, fluvial, and coastal flood damage in Houston, Texas during Hurricane 

 

Sebastian, A., Gori, A., Blessing, R., van der Wiel, K., Bass, B. (2019) Disentangling the relative impacts of human and environmental change on catchment response during Hurricane Harvey. Environmental Research Letters, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab5234.

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Van Oldenborgh, G. J., Van Der Wiel, K., Sebastian, A., Singh, R., Arrighi, J., Otto, F., ... & Cullen, H. (2017). Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017. Environmental Research Letters, 12(12), 124009.

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